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Project Estimation and Black Swans (Part 5): Test Estimation

In this series of blog posts, I’ve been talking about project estimation. But I’m a tester, and if you’re reading this blog, presumably you’re a tester too, or at least you’re interested in testing. So, all this has might have been interesting for project estimation in general, but what are the implications for test project estimation? Let’s start with the tester’s approach: question the question. Is there ever such a … Read more

Project Estimation and Black Swans (Part 4)

Over the last few posts, exploratory automation has suggested some interesting things about project dynamics and estimation. What might we learn from these little mathematical experiments? The first thing we need to do is to emphasize the fact that we’re playing with numbers here. This exercise can’t offer any real construct validity, since an arbitrary chunk of time combined with a roll of the dice doesn’t match software development in … Read more

Project Estimation and Black Swans (Part 3)

Last time out, we determined that mucking with the estimate to account for variance and surprises in projects is in several ways wanting. This time, we’ll make some choices about the tasks and the projects, and see where those choices might take us. Leave Problem Tasks Incomplete; Accept Missing Features There are a couple of variations on this strategy. The first is to Blow The Whistle At 100. That is, … Read more

Project Estimation and Black Swans (Part 2)

In the last post, I talked about the asymmetry of unexpected events and the attendant problems with estimation. Today we’re going to look at some possible workarounds for the problems. Testers often start by questioning the validity of models, so let’s start there. The linear model that I’ve proposed doesn’t match reality in several ways, and so far I haven’t been very explicit about them. Here are just a few … Read more

Project Estimation and Black Swans (Part 1)

There has been a flurry of discussion about estimation on the net in the last few months. Ward Cunningham tweeted, “Estimating is the non-problem that know-nothings spent decades trying to solve.” Pradeep Soundararajan wrote a long blog post on test effort estimation. A fellow named Nathaniel posted an interesting perspective on successful estimates on the Terralien Web site. Jens Schauder posted 8 Reasons Why The Estimates Are Too Low. Andre … Read more

Challenges and Legibility

Lately, James Bach and I have been issuing challenges to some of our colleagues on Twitter, typically based on something they’ve said or observed. I think James would agree that the results have been very exciting. In our community, people build credibility by responding to challenges and probing the issues more deeply, and it’s been tremendous to see how some of them have risen to the challenge. For me, recent … Read more